Welcome to spring! The calendar has flipped to March, meaning real baseball will occur this month. Fantasy managers are hard at work preparing for their drafts and the season ahead. Without question, at least for me, the excitement for baseball, both real and fantasy, grows daily. To help with the draft and season prep work, I have been writing articles every week. This week is no exception, as I submit my Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers edition.
As with all my articles, which can be found on the Belly Up Fantasy Website, debate and discussion are strongly encouraged. Whether you agree or disagree isn't important. Let's talk about it! Now, without wasting another minute, let's get down to it.
Tier One
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Bobby Witt Jr, Kansas City Royals, age 23, 158 games, .276-30-96, 177 hits, 97 runs, 121K, 40BB, 49 SB, 15 CS, .319/.495/.813, .285 BAbip, 131 OPS+, .192 ISO, 17.4 SO%, 5.8 BB%, 11 3B, FantasyPros: 1, ESPN: 1.
Corey Seager, Texas Rangers, age 29, 119 games, .327-33-96, 156 hits, 88 runs, 88K, 49BB, .390/.623/.1.013, .340 BAbip, 170 OPS+, .296 ISO, 16.4 SO%, 9.1 BB%, FantasyPros: 4, ESPN: 2.
Trea Turner, Philadelphia Phillies, age 30, 155 games, .266-26-76, 170 hits, 102 runs, 150K, 45BB, 30 SB, 0 CS, .320/.459/.778, .310 BAbip, 111 OPS+, .192 ISO, 21.7 SO%, 6.5 BB%, FantasyPros: 2, ESPN: 3.
Comment: Unlike my second base and third base tier rankings, there is more than one player at the top at the shortstop position. In this case, make that three. Let me crystal clear about one thing. Seager being in this tier is dependent on him being healthy to start the season. At the moment, he is recovering from sports hernia surgery in January.
When healthy, Seager is clearly one of the best players in the game. Even with only 119 games played last season, he was second in the A.L. MVP race. He is a two-time World Series MVP. Even so, as stated, check his health on draft day. If he's not 100 percent, move him down a tier.
With all that said, Witt is the top player here. He's still only 23 years old, but he's the complete package. If he can just rein in his strikeouts and not be so haphazard on the bases, he would approach the top of all players overall. FantasyPros has him ranked as the second best player in fantasy. Just know, if you spend that high of a draft pick on him, his value will not match the selection.
As for Turner, he had a very down year based his past production. Still only 30, there is every reason to expect a bounceback to what he accomplished in 2022: 100 runs and 100 RBIs. He has led the league in hits and steals twice each in his career. Don't be surprised if he puts up a 30-30 season in 2024.
Tier Two
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Gunnar Henderson, Baltimore Orioles, age 22, 150 games, .255-18-82, 100 runs, 143 hits, 159K, 56BB, .328/.489/.814, 125 OPS+, .306 BAbip, .234 ISO, 25.6 SO%, 9.0 BB%, FantasyPros: 6, ESPN: 4.
Francisco Lindor, New York Mets, age 27, 153 games, .271-33-100, 90 runs, 157 hits, 126K, 62BB, .351/.500/.851, 126 OPS+, .229 ISO, 19.3 SO%, 9.5 BB%, .292 BAbip, FantasyPros: 3, ESPN: 2.
Comment: Start here: After Ramirez come three quality third basemen. While not first round material, these three will go high in drafts and they have clearly earned the honor. ESPN has Riley ranked behind Devers and Bregman, but I don't agree. He is the youngest of the three and hits in the best lineup.
Riley's SO% and BB% are worse than the others, no question about that. However, he will only get better. If it weren't for the presence of Ramirez, he would be my top third baseman for 2024. With that being said, any manager that winds up with one of the other two, will be extremely pleased on draft day.
A special mention on this Fantasy Baseball Third-Base Tiers edition regards Bregman. 2024 is the final one on his contract. He has every incentive to put up great numbers this season. Houston still has an excellent hitting lineup. In my opinion, he is ranked a bit too high on ESPN. Even so, Bregman is due for one of the best seasons of his career.
Tier Three
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Bo Bichette, Toronto Blue Jays, age 25, 135 games, .306-20-73, 175 hits, 69 runs, 115K, 27BB, .339/.475/.814, 123 OPS+, .355 BAbip, .168 ISO, 19.1 SO%, 4.5 BB%, FantasyPros: 7, ESPN: 7.
Nico Hoerner, Chicago Cubs, age 26, 150 games, .282-9-68, 175 hits, 98 runs, 83K, 49BB, .346/.383/.729, 97 OPS+, .312 BAbip, .100 ISO, 12.1 SO%, 7.1 BB%, 43 SB, 7 CS, FantasyPros: 11, ESPN: 6.
Ha Seong Kim, San Diego Padres, age 28, 152 games, .260-17-60, 84 runs, 140 hits, 124K, 75BB, .351/.398/.749, 110 OPS+ .306 BAbip, .138 ISO, 19.8 SO%, 12.0 BB%, FantasyPros: 13, ESPN: 9.
Comment: In this tier, we have players that are widely different in their current career arcs. Arenado has been around for ages while Henderson is coming off his rookie season. No question, what a rookie season it was. Henderson was the rookie-of-the-year winner while also finishing eighth in MVP voting.
The only question about him is that he isn't healthy yet in spring training. He has an oblique issue, but it should be fully healed by Opening Day. It is a situation well worthy monitoring. If all goes as planned, this Fantasy Baseball Third-Base Tiers says draft him with confidence.
As for Arenado, like Ramirez, he is coming off a down season. The hits, runs, homers and RBIs were his fewest in a full season since 2014. Before 2023, Arenado had driven in 100 or more runs in seven straight full years.
St. Louis, as a whole, was much worse last year than anyone could have predicted. Without doubt, they will be better in 2024. Anticipate the same out of Arenado. Being 32 isn't that old. Expect him to return to his previous heights and justify a high selection on draft day.
Regarding Kim, I wrote about him in my Fantasy Baseball Second-Base Tiers edition. Everything said there applies here as well.
Tier Four
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Elly De La Cruz, Cincinnati Reds, age 22, 98 games, .235-13-44, 91 hits, 67 runs, 144K, 35BB, .300/.410/.710, 89 OPS+, .336 BAbip, .175 ISO, 33.7 SO%, 8.2 BB%, 35 SB, 8 CS, FantasyPros: 8, ESPN: 12
Dansby Swanson, Chicago Cubs, age 30, 147 games, .244-22-80, 138 hits, 81 runs, 154K, 66BB, .328/.416/.744, 99 OPS+, .297 BAbip, .172 ISO, 24.1 SO%, 10.3 BB%, FantasyPros 15, ESPN 14.
Matt McLain, Cincinnati Reds, age 24, 89 games, .290-16-50, 106 hits, 65 runs, 115K, 31BB, .357/.507,/864, 129 OPS+, .385 BAbip, 131 OPS+, .216 ISO, 28.5 SO%, 7.7 BB%, FantasyPros: 10, ESPN: 10.
Comment: When speaking of down years, Machado was the leader of the pack in 2023. Even though he finished with 30 homers, his season was a down right disappointment. At times, it seemed like he was more with arguing about the new rules in baseball than simply playing the game.
Additionally, like the Cardinals, the Padres club wasn't nearly what any of us were looking for last year. I fully expect a comeback season from Machado. By and large, he was a second round draft pick a year ago. It won't cost nearly as much capital to pick him in 2024, and he will return value where he is drafted.
As for Lewis, he only played in 58 games a year ago, but there were positive signs regarding his play going forward. More than likely, that BAbip isn't sustainable, but don't expect a big drop in that area. The fact that he hit 15 homers in such few games gives a big indication of his power potential. No question in my mind, Lewis is a top ten third base candidate in 2024.
Next up is another youngster who is coming off an excellent season. Of course, I am referring to Paredes. The BA isn't impressive, but check out that OBP. Add in the 31 home runs and we have a complete fantasy player on our hands.
His SO% is ideal for a 30 homer player. Even so, best of all, his 1B and 3B eligibility only adds to his value. That top ten ranking on ESPN takes that down just a bit, however. Keep an eye on him during the draft, and if he starts to slide a bit, jump all over Paredes.
Tier Five
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Xander Bogaerts, San Diego Padres, age 31, 155 games, .285-19-58, 170 hits, 83 runs, 110K, 56BB, .350/.440/.790, 120 OPS+, .319 BAbip, .154 ISO, 16.5 SO%, 8.4 BB%, 19 SB, 2 CS, FantasyPros: 14, ESPN: 8
J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners, age 29, 145 games, .266-19-65, 142 hits, 94 runs, 125K, 99BB, .380/.438/.818, 131 OPS+, .314 BAbip, .172 ISO, 19.6 SO%, 14.7 BB%, FantasyPros: 26, ESPN: 11.
Comment: When it comes to adaptability, no one has it like Steer. He is qualified at 1B, 3B and the OF. There are too many players vying for roles on the Reds. However, one thing we can be sure of, Steer will be in their lineup somewhere. He is young and plays every day. He won't cost as much draft capital as those above him. Without doubt, that increases his value significantly on this Fantasy Baseball Third-Base Tiers edition. Once the draft begins, look to add Steer to your roster.
While Bohm doesn't have the versatility that Steer has, his eligibility at first and third can't be ignored. Neither can the fact that he is hitting in one of the best lineups in all of baseball. Expect more homers and runs scored and for him to drive in more than 100 runs. His value on ESPN isn't nearly what it is on FantasyPros, but in either case, Bohm is well worth calling his name on draft day.
Shortstop Values
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Jackson Holliday, Baltimore Orioles, age 20, minor league stats: 125 games, .323-12-75, 154 hits, 113 runs, 118K, 101BB, .442/.499/1.167, 91 OPS+, .275 BAbip, .150 ISO, 15.9 SO%, 6.6 BB%, FantasyPros: 19, ESPN: 16
Tommy Edman, St. Louis Cardinals, age 28, 137 games, .248-13-47, 119 hits, 69 runs, 84K, 35BB, .307/.399/.706, 24 SB, 9 CS, FantasyPros: 19, ESPN: 16
Comment: I wrote back on January 15th that Holiday is baseball's top prospect this season. I see no reason to shy away from that now. When the announcement comes that he has made Baltimore's roster, be sure to get him on the roster. Drafting him is the highest recommendation on this Fantasy Baseball Shortstops Tiers edition. The fact that he is eligible at SS and 2B only increases his value.
Speaking of versatile, Edman matches that description better than just about anyone else in the game. He enters the season qualified at 2B and OF as well as SS. He is a mid to late round draft pick that just makes sense, especially in leagues that have middle and corner infielder slots in the lineup.
Shortstops to be Cautious of
, Los Angeles Dodgers, age 33, 135 games, .212-36-105, 95 runs, 102 hits, 153K, 85BB, .333/.475/.808, 137 OPS+, .331 BAbip, .237 ISO, 27.3 SO%, 8.7 BB%, FantasyPros: 12, ESPN: 18
, Cincinnati Reds, age 22, 98 games, .235-13-44, 67 runs, 91 hits, 144K, 35BB, .300/.410/.710, 89 OPS+, .366 BAbip, .175 ISO, 33.7 SO%, 8.2 BB%, 35 SB, 8 CS, FantasyPros 5, ESPN 8
Comment: Before anyone's head explodes, let me explain why De La Cruz is placed in the caution tier. He arrived in the big leagues last year like a supernova. He was as electric as just about any player in recent memory.
The problem is that since De La Cruz is ranked in the top five, he'll have to hit his ceiling to provide good value at that draft spot. If you think that will happen, go ahead and pull the trigger. Just be aware of what you could be getting into before doing so.
Truthfully, the steals are great, but he will have to cut down that ugly SO%, There is a zero chance he can maintain that BAbip. Be aware, that's all I am saying on this Fantasy Baseball Third-Base Tiers edition.
As for Muncy, the homers, RBIs and runs scored looks great from last year. However, there are storm clouds on the horizon. His BAbip is unsustainable. His SO% is high and likely will not get any better.
Muncy will have to completely hit his ceiling to justify where he is ranked. Like De La Cruz, he may well do that. Even so, pay attention to the storm clouds and research Muncy heavily before pulling the lever on him on draft day.
Shortstop Fallers
, New York Yankees, age 35, 136 games, .243-15-44, 55 runs, 121 hits, 125K, 60BB, .327/.390/.718, 96 OPS+, .295 BAbip, .147 ISO, 27.3 SO%, 11.5 BB%, FantasyPros: 22, ESPN 27
, FA, age 30, 140 games, .240-17-54, 66 runs, 122 hits, 165K, 62BB, .330/.424/.54, 108 OPS+, .319 BAbip, .185 ISO, 22.2 SO%, 10.7 BB%, FantasyPros: 22, ESPN 24
Comment: Even though LeMathieu is potentially one of the best hitting lineups in baseball, he isn't worth a selection on draft day. He is a long way from the player that hit 26 homers and drove in 102 runs in 2019. He hasn't topped 15 homers in a season since. Worst of all, he isn't an every day player at this stage of his career. Don't allow the Yankee mystique fool you and pass on LaMathieu.
Last, but not least, is Chapman. As of this writing, he hasn't signed with any team this spring. Even if he did, his bat leaves a lot to be desired. His defense is still solid, but the lumber has given out on him. In no way, shape or form, no matter the format, should any manager waste a draft pick on Chapman this year.
The Last Word
Thank you for joining me for this Fantasy Baseball Shortstop Tiers edition! Debate and discussion are always encouraged when it comes to my fantasy articles. Do you agree or disagree? Have another first baseman or two in mind? Let's talk about it.
The Sports Stove Fantasy Baseball Show will be live every Sunday at 8 pm Eastern from here to the end of the fantasy season, at the least. Don't miss out! In our last episode, we discussed our catchers tiers, risers and players to be cautious of.
Follow me on X (formerly Twitter) @kevin62wilsea. Please feel free to share this article. Be sure to turn to Belly Up Sports and Belly Up Fantasy Sports for all the MLB, NBA, NFL, NHL happenings and the latest sports news!
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