The Sentry – Gambling/DFS Preview 2024

Anthony Falcone

Jan 3

The PGA Tour returns this week for the new 2024 season for The Sentry at Kapalua Resort Plantation Course in Maui, Hawaii with a loaded, small field for the no cut event.

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Course Breakdown

Par 73, 7596 yards but at a high elevation so it plays shorter (around 7100 yards) with 4 Par 5s and 3 Par 3s, resort course, lot of elevation changes with over 600 feet from top to bottom of the course and uneven lies as the course was built on the side of a mountain, most of the Par 5s are reachable in 2 but the eagle rate is low, huge very wide fairways with very little rough (over 73% of fairways hit, which is significantly higher than tour average ~62%), because of the elevation the average driving distance here is longer than tour average (~291 vs. ~283), lot of roll on the fairways with a lot of slope and undulation, if tee shots are ridiculously wild players will have to deal with very tall grass, massive and slow Bermuda greens with a lot of undulation (but they were a little quicker the last four years and had more bounce due to resodding), some greens have been flattened in 2021 to make the course a little more difficult, much higher GIR % here (~79% vs. tour average ~65%), very high three putt percentage here since the greens are so high, 90+ bunkers on the course, right on the Pacific Ocean and wind will be a factor here

Tournament Notes

No cut event
First "elevated" event of the season with a much bigger purse of $20 million with $3.6 million to the winner (almost double of what it was last year). Rory skipping this event means he cannot skip any other elevated event this season
Both of the last two winners, Jon Rahm and Cam Smith went to LIV
Before Jon Rahm last year and Cam Smith the year before, the last eleven winners before them have all been from the US
Winners the previous year here have done very well the following year, which doesn't apply to this season since Rahm's no longer on the PGA Tour (same with last year with Cam Smith on LIV too last year)
In the last eleven years, the highest odds of the winner of this event was Harris English at +3300
13 of the last 15 winners here played a tournament in the month of December across various tours
13 of the last 14 winners had at least three previous career wins on either the PGA or the DP World Tour
16 of the last 17 winner had previously won a birdie fest where the winning score was -18 or better
5 of the last 8 winners had either won a FedEx Cup event or a fall swing season PGA event
Before 2021, only 5 non-US golfers have finished T3 since 2011: Day, Rahm, Hideki (x2), Laird, GMac, Joaquín Niemann (In 2022 all of the T3 were from outside the US in Cam Smith, Jon Rahm and Matt Jones. Last year Rahm won, but the other six T5 finishers were all from the US
No first time player has won since 2008 (Daniel Chopra)
Since 2014, before 2021 only seven golfers have finished T5 in their first appearance here, including Spieth, Hideki, Rahm, Rory and Brooks (so the elite). In 2021, Niemann (2) and Sungjai Im (T5) did as well. Last year, Tom Kim and Tom Hope did too.
In the last ten years, 26 of the 37 T3 finishers have been T25 in the World Golf Rankings and 26 of those 37 were American
Only two of the 16 first timers here in 2022 finished T10
Each of the last eight winners ranked T20 or better in Birdie+ % in the season that they won
10 of the last 11 winners ranked T25 in Par 5 scoring in the season that they won (and 7 of the last 8 winners ranked T5)
Driving accuracy does not matter whatsoever here with the gigantic fairways as evidenced by that 18 of the last 21 winners here ranked outside the Top 115 in Driving Accuracy on the season that they won
The best trend fits are Scottie Scheffler (best), Xander Schauffele, Patrick Cantlay, and Collin Morikawa (second tier), and Spieth, Hovland, Fitzpatrick, Homa, Burns (third tier)

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Par 5 Scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: Less than 150 yds. (~40% of approach shots), over 200 yds. (~40% of approach shots)

Corollary Courses

TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic) - 4 of the last 13 winners also won the John Deere Classic (Spieth, ZJ, Stricker and Jonathan Byrd)
Augusta National (The Masters) - lot of undulation and crazy slope changes in elevation

Field

59 golfers - Fantastic field strength for a limited field events with every winner from last year remaining on three PGA Tour and the Top 50 in last years FedEx Cup standings being eligible for this event, Rory is the only eligible player not in the field this week

Last Year Champion: Jon Rahm (-27), not defending since he went to the LIV Tour

Runner Up Last Year: Collin Morikawa (-25)

One and Done: Starts next week for the Sony Open, so make sure you sign up. I'm in the big Pat Mayo one

Players

Patrick Cantlay: 9900: +1300 - Plays better on easier courses, T16,4,T13,4 finishes here, hasn't played besides the Ryder Cup since the Tour Championship, 5,15,2,33,MC,4,14,39,9,21,3,14 finishes in his last twelve events, 11th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 36th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 23rd in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 44th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 16th in Opportunities Gained, 19th in Birdie+ Gained, 16th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting

Collin Morikawa: 9100: +1400 - Last year he was leading this tournament by six strokes going into Sunday and completely imploded on the back nine with Rahm beating him by three, putts better on slower greens, 2,T5,T7,T7 finishes here, played the Hero World Challenge (finished 7th there), won the ZOZO in his only swing season event, 1,6,25,13,MC,2,MC,14,29,26 finishes in his last ten events, 5th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 11th in Par 5 Scoring, 16th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 13th in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 28th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 5th in Opportunities Gained, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, 38th in SG: ARG, 49th in Putting

Tom Kim: 8900: +2800 - Coming off a win at the Shriners in his only swing season event and was impressive in his first time here last year, T5 finish in his debut here last year, played a handful of DP World Tour and swing season events with 15,1,6,18,20,10,24,2,6,MC,38,8 finishes in his last twelve events across both tours, 14th in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 18th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 5 Scoring, 25th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 20th in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 4th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 51st in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 57th in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting

Eric Cole: 7400: +6000 - Played fantastic in the swing season, I rode him all fall and he wasn't able to get a win but consistently played great, first time playing this event, 3,2,3,35,4,25,31,14,30,60,42,24,39,6,24 finishes in his last 15 events, 7th in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 17th in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 5 Scoring, 6th in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 28th in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 18th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 3rd in Opportunities Gained, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 6th in SG: ARG, 14th in Putting, also taking him on the each way for the T5

Luke List: 6200: +10000 - So cheap this week and has played well recently with a win in the swing season, even though his putting still blows he has improved recently and gained strokes putting in three of his four fall swing season events, still worst in the field in putting from 5-10 and 10-15 feet, T11 finish his first time here last year, 19,20,45,18,1,25,35,33,MC,16,57,34 finishes in his last twelve events, 18th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Par 5 Scoring, 33rd in Proximity: 100-125 yards, 45th in Proximity: 125-150 yards, 6th in Proximity: 200+ yards, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, 36th in SG: ARG, 50th in Putting, also taking him on the each way for the T5, just the outright would have been better odds but taking the each way gave me much better T5 odds which I like a lot in LL's case

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (15%)

Par 5 Scoring (10%)

Proximity: 100-125 yards (5%)

Proximity: 125-150 yards (5%)

Proximity: 200+ yards (10%)

Opportunities Gained (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

Because of the smaller than usual no cut field (which we'll see a lot more of this year), there will be a lot of duplicate lineups on DraftKings, so leaving more money than usual on the table could be a good move
I'm going to selectively use each ways again this year for longer shots. It isn't profitable to use them on anyone inside around 50:1, but for longer odds it could be.
I will note this season what books I am placing each bet on
I'm going to analyze matchup bets this season and may start placing them based off trends I see in the first few weeks of the year vs. my model