Middleweight Bout
#45 Bo Nickal vs #55 Tresean "Mr. Vicious" Gore - This is a big fight for both of these Middleweights. Nickal is obviously a rising star with a ton of hype behind him and even before he had his first MMA fight people were looking at him as a potential future champion. Across the cage from him here is Gore, a TUF 29 finalist who is coming off his first UFC win. Gore was forced out of the TUF 29 finals due to an injury, only to come back and face eventual winner of that season Bryan Battle and lost by decision. After that he was knocked out in the first round by Cody Brundage and it looked like his UFC career was going to come to an abrupt end. However, he faced Josh Fremd in his last outing and submitted him with a guillotine choke in the second round. If Gore can pull off this upset, that will be huge for his career.
Nickal is an NCAA Division I All-American wrestler, an 8-time gold medalist, had an NCAA record of 121-3, he's a blue belt in BJJ, and he's training with one of the best teams in MMA at American Top Team in Coconut Creek, Florida. He's finished all 4 of his pro wins with 1 knockout and 3 submissions.
Gore was a finalist on TUF 29, he's a purple belt in BJJ and he's got some serious power in his strikes. He's finished 3 of his 4 pro wins with 1 knockout and 2 submissions.
You could argue that Gore is a step down after facing the much more experienced Jamie Pickett in his last outing, but I'd argue it's still a step in the right direction as Gore is another young and hungry prospect who is still improving whereas Pickett was a journeyman. That being said, the fact that it's even debatable should be an indication of the way that this fight is going to go. Gore has shown pretty solid takedown defense, he's the higher level BJJ belt, and he has knockout power, so the possibility of the upset is definitely there. Nickal rushes his fights, he looks uncomfortable at striking range and forces the grappling exchanges by crashing in. He's one of, if not THE, highest level wrestler that's ever been in the UFC, so if he does crash in and get ahold of his opponent, he's going to be able to get them to the mat. That being said, the fight starts on the feet and he has to close distance against a more dangerous striker, who happens to have pretty solid takedown defense. It wouldn't shock me to see Nickal in trouble for the first time in his career and we haven't really seen how he does when faced with adversity in the cage yet. With that said, it also wouldn't shock me if Nickal runs Gore right over like he has been doing to the rest of his opponents and that's more of what I'm expecting. Nickal wastes no time and should look for the takedown immediately and while Gore's takedown defense may hold up to the initial shot, it won't hold up when Nickal chains his takedowns together and once he's on the mat, Nickal should have his way. I see him taking whichever finish presents itself first either the TKO or the submission and while Nickal has mainly won by submission, I see him getting the TKO in this one.
Pick: Bo Nickal by KO/TKO RD 1
Lightweight Bout
#10 Jalin "The Tarantula" Turner vs #11 Dan "The Hangman" Hooker - These two were supposed to fight back at UFC 285 in March but the fight got cancelled when Hooker broke his hand. Turner ended up facing Mateusz Gamrot instead and lost by split decision. Now they are set to meet again in what should make for a fairly entertaining match-up and both fighters need this win to remain in the top 15.
Hooker is a purple belt in BJJ, he picked up multiple kickboxing titles as well as two regional MMA titles in Australia and New Zealand. He's finished 18 of his 22 pro wins with 11 KO/TKOs and 7 submissions.
I saw this fight as a bit of a coinflip before, with Turner either scoring the early finish or letting Hooker start to find his rhythm and take over the longer the fight went. In that equation, I was still taking Turner to get the early knockout, but after Turner's fight against Gamrot, it gives me even more faith picking him. Gamrot is extremely high level, and Turner was able to make it really close and take him to a split decision. Now, Hooker presents a much different type of challenge as Gamrot is a wrestler and Hooker is a kickboxer, but still there's reason to like Turner. Hooker isn't a fast starter and Turner is, so I expect him to capitalize early and find the shots he needs to end it.
Pick: Jalin Turner by KO/TKO RD 1
Middleweight Bout
#2 Robert "The Reaper" Whittaker vs #5 Dricus "Stillknocks" Du Plessis - This is a great fight and a hugely important one for both of these fighters and for the division. The winner of this fight is very likely to be fighting for the title next, even though Whittaker has already lost twice to the current champ Israel Adesanya. Whittaker's last fight with Adesanya was extremely close, and many thought he should have got the decision. Since then, he's rebounded with a win over Marvin Vettori and if he can hold off Du Plessis he may be able to force a third fight with Adesanya. For Du Plessis, he's undefeated in the UFC, he's rapidly rising up the division, and he's created some drama with the current champ by saying he's the real African and will be the real African champ who brings the title back to Africa. Adesanya has stated he wants to knock Du Plessis out for this and is manifesting him winning this fight, so the champ is going to be watching this contest very closely.
Whittaker is the former UFC Middleweight champion, the TUF Smashes winner, the former Superfight Australia Welterweight champ, a national gold medalist in freestyle wrestling, a black belt in Hapkido, a black belt in Gōjū-ryū karate, and a black belt in BJJ. He's finished 14 of his 24 pro wins with 9 KO/TKOs and 5 submissions.
Du Plessis is the former EFC Middleweight and Welterweight champ, the former KSW Welterweight champ, a gold medalist in WAKO, and a 2nd-degree black belt in kickboxing. He's finished 18 of his 19 pro wins with 8 KO/TKOs and 10 submissions.
People are seriously underestimating Du Plessis here, he's dangerous everywhere, he's the bigger fighter, he's a high level kickboxer and him pulling off this upset is far from out of the question. Breaking this down on paper, Du Plessis throws more volume and is more accurate but Whittaker is better defensively on the feet. Du Plessis attempts and lands more takedowns but Whittaker has some of the best takedown defense in the division. Du Plessis is the more proven submission threat but Whittaker is a black belt in BJJ and can hold his own on the ground. I'm still picking Whittaker, but I expect Du Plessis to have some moments and make this a harder fight than anyone seems to be expecting it to be. Whittaker has just gotten to a point where he is so good that he almost coasts through fights now as his ring generalship is next level and he knows how to win rounds. He almost reminds me of Jon Jones or Demetrious Johnson during their title runs where they had gotten to a point of winning where it almost looked like they didn't have to try.
Pick: Robert Whittaker by Decision
UFC Flyweight Championship Bout
#C Brandon "The Assassin Baby" Moreno vs #2 Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja III - This will be the third time that these two have fought and both other times, Pantoja came away with a victory. The first time they fought was on TUF 24 where Pantoja eliminated Moreno from the season with a submission in the second round. Moreno then went 3-1 in the UFC before losing again to Pantoja, this time by decision, and was subsequently cut from the promotion. Moreno is 7-1-2 since and has captured the UFC Flyweight title, while Pantoja has gone 6-2 since and has earned his shot at gold.
Moreno is the current UFC Flyweight champ, he's ridiculously durable, he's a black belt in BJJ and his overall game has improved in leaps and bounds. He's finished 16 of his 21 pro wins with 5 KO/TKOs and 11 submissions.
Pantoja is the former RFA champ, he won the Legacy vs RFA champ vs champ super fight, he's a multiple time state champion in BJJ, a state and national champion in Muay Thai, the former South American Shooto champ, and has one of the best teams in the world behind him at American Top Team.
Moreno has absolutely improved since the last time these two fought, there's no question about it, but the question is if it will be enough to not only catch up to Pantoja but surpass him. Pantoja has beaten him twice already and yet Moreno is the one holding the title, so there is going to be a chip on Pantoja's shoulder, but there's also that mental block and a point to prove for Moreno that he's already lost twice to this fighter. If you want to break it down on paper, Pantoja thows more volume, hits harder, and he's more accurate with his strikes, but Moreno is a bit better defensively and has a great chin. For the wrestling, Moreno attempts slightly more takedowns, lands them at a slightly higher rate as well, but both fighters defend well and Pantoja has the edge in the grappling department. You can break down the X's and O's all day with these two but the fact is Pantoja has already beat Moreno twice and has a fighting style that just gives him problems. Even with that fact, Moreno is the favorite in this fight which is pretty absurd. I like Pantoja to beat Moreno for the third time as he can win the striking exchanges, land the harder shots, keep up with Moreno's pace, and use his BJJ to win the grappling exchanges and possibly even get another submission. Moreno has insane cardio so the later this fight goes the better he'll likely do, but I think Pantoja can bank the early rounds and stay competitive late to get the decision.
Pick: Alexandre Pantoja by Decision
UFC Featherweight Championship Bout
#C Alexander "The Great" Volkanovski vs #IC Yair "El Pantera" Rodriguez - Rodriguez won the interim Featherweight title on the same night that Volkanovski fought for the Lightweight title against Islam Makhachev. No man was happier to see Volkanovski lose that night than Rodriguez as it guaranteed him coming back to the Featherweight division and having to fight Rodriguez to unify the belts. Now Rodriguez will finally get his chance as he's been touted as a future champ for a long while now but he's facing arguably the greatest Featherweight of all time and pound-for-pound number 1 fighter in the world.
Volkanovski is a former rugby player who transitioned to MMA and has looked absolutely phenomenal since. He's a black belt in BJJ, a top level striker and has shown great wrestling as well. He's finished 15 of his 25 pro wins with 12 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions.
Rodriguez is the TUF Latin America 1 winner, he's a black belt in Taekwondo, and he's one of the most dynamic and creative strikers in UFC history. He's finished 9 of his 15 pro wins with 6 KO/TKOs and 3 submissions.
This is definitely an interesting test for Volkanovski as he has never faced a striker like Rodriguez before. Rodriguez is durable, he's creative, he's fast, and he's taller, and if he can start letting his strikes loose, he could have Volkanovski in some real trouble. That being said, Volkanovski fights at a higher pace, throws more volume, is more accurate, is better defensively, is the better wrestler and neither fighter is much of a grappling threat. I don't think we ever see Rodriguez get his game going in this fight as I expect Volkanovski to be all over him from the first bell. Volkanovski is great at putting on the pressure, which will take away the space that Rodriguez needs to set up his striking. Rodriguez's last two losses have been against Max Holloway and Frankie Edgar, one of which Volkanovski destroyed the last time they met, and the other of which Volkanovski almost has an upgraded style of. I expect Volkanovski to emulate things from both of those fights and his pressure and wrestling to be too much for Rodriguez. Even if Rodriguez lands a shot, Volkanovski has a great chin and some of the best composure during a fight that we've ever seen. Volkanovski dominates, batters Rodriguez on the mat and scores the late stoppage or decision win.
Pick: Alexander Vokanovski by KO/TKO RD 3
No comments:
Post a Comment