[New post] UFC Vegas 68 Predictions: Lewis vs Spivak
JBrayne posted: " After a two-week break, the UFC returns with a less-than-stellar card at the Apex. Admittedly, the biggest draw for the card is Derrick Lewis' weight loss and controversial comments over Dan Miragliotta - with the Black Beast insisting the veteran r" Pintsized Interests
After a two-week break, the UFC returns with a less-than-stellar card at the Apex. Admittedly, the biggest draw for the card is Derrick Lewis' weight loss and controversial comments over Dan Miragliotta - with the Black Beast insisting the veteran referee has a "conspiracy" against him. Fear not though, the UFC Vegas 68 Predictions are as glittering as ever.
The UFC Vegas 68 Main Card struggles to hold a light to Fedor Emelianenko and Ryan Bader over in Bellator, yet Derrick Lewis tends to create highlight-reel stoppages for himself or his opponents. Saturday night could prove to be a breakout night for 'Polar Bear' Sergei Spivak, a long-time gatekeeper who has finally cracked the code on the mat.
Meanwhile, the UFC Vegas 68 Prelims are stacked with the four "Road to UFC" finals. The Road to UFC involves a series of events in Singapore which pitted Asian MMA prospects in a bid for dreadfully underpaid UFC contracts. This stinks of a DWCS-calibre card - dumb, ugly fun that goes against the UFC's stature as the 'premier' MMA organisation.
Where is UFC Vegas 68 taking place?
The event will take place at the UFC Apex in Nevada, United States, on February 4 2023.
What time does UFC Vegas 68 start?
The UFC Vegas 68 Main Event is scheduled to start at 1AM ET in the US and 6AM GMT in the UK. The UFC Vegas 68 Prelims are scheduled to start at 10PM ET in the US and 3AM GMT in the UK.
Where can I watch UFC Vegas 68?
The UFC Vegas 68 event can be streamed on ESPN+ in the US and BT Sport in the UK. You are advised to use official streams for UFC Vegas 68 and avoid buffstreams, crackstreams or Reddit streams.
Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Spivak Odds: (+195) / (-230)
Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Spivak Prediction: Spivak Decision
Da Un Jung vs Devin Clark Odds: (-245) / (+205)
Da Un Jung vs Devin Clark Prediction: Jung Decision
Marcin Tybura vs Blagoy Ivanov Odds: (-135) / (+115)
Marcin Tybura vs Blagoy Ivanov Prediction: Tybura Decision
Doo Ho Choi vs Kyle Nelson Odds: (-195) / (+165)
Doo Ho Choi vs Kyle Nelson Prediction: Choi TKO Round 2
Yusaku Kinoshita vs Adam Fugitt Odds: (-325) / (+270)
Yusaku Kinoshita vs Adam Fugitt Prediction: Kinoshita Submission Round 2
Anshul Jubli vs Jeka Saragih Odds: (-115) / (-105)
Anshul Jubli vs Jeka Saragih Prediction: Saragih Decision
Zha Yi vs Jeong Yeong Lee Odds: (+205) / (-245)
Zha Yi vs Jeong Yeong Lee Prediction: Lee TKO Round 2
Rinya Nakamura vs Toshiomi Kazama Odds: (-435) / (+350)
Rinya Nakamura vs Toshiomi Kazama Prediction: Nakamura TKO Round 1
Hyun Sung Park vs Seung Guk Choi Odds: (-190) / (+160)
Hyun Sung Park vs Seung Guk Choi Prediction: Park Decision
Ji Yeon Kim vs Mandy Bohm Odds: (-280) / (+235)
Ji Yeon Kim vs Mandy Bohm Prediction: Kim Decision
Jun Yong Park vs Denis Tiuliulin Odds: (-225) / (+190)
Jun Yong Park vs Denis Tiuliulin Prediction: Park Submission Round 2
Tatsuro Taira vs Jesus Aguilar Odds: (-1150) / (+750)
Tatsuro Taira vs Jesus Aguilar Prediction: Taira Decision
Odds are based on BestFightOdds.com. All odds of 3 February 2023.
UFC Vegas 68: Main Event Prediction
Derrick Lewis vs Sergei Spivak
Heavyweight (265)
Derrick Lewis (26-10)
Lewis may have been stopped in his last two fights, but it doesn't necessarily indicate a massive decline. The Black Beast has built a career of Homer Simpson-ing his way into the later rounds before landing his one-shot knockout power. Lewis endured a similar stretch of humiliating losses to Daniel Cormier and Junior Dos Santos but then went on to build a four-fight streak (including a knockout over Blaydes).
As long as Lewis remains the flawed yet consistent Heavyweight we have all come to know, he very much beats Spivak. The veteran has meme-level TDD but he is truly difficult to pin on the mat. Spivak has been honing his craft in the shadows, but there are still times that Spivak ends up on his back when pursuing takedowns.
Sergei Spivak (15-3)
Polar Bear has developed leaps and bounds since his UFC debut back in 2019. Spivak, at his core, remains a grinding wrestler who can expose the one-trick nature of many Heavyweights. Over 2022, we have witnessed more educated striking at range. There is absolutely no way that Spivak should engage in prolonged exchanges on the feet, but it also means he might not crumble at the first Lewis haymaker.
Lewis vs Spivak Prediction: Spivak Decision
Spivak, at his core, remains a grinding wrestler who can expose the one-trick nature of many Heavyweights. Despite all the memes, Lewis is a very difficult fighter to pin down to the mat. There is reason to believe that we may have witnessed a physical decline in Lewis over his past two losses, however. If not for such a perceived decline, Lewis would have to be favoured in the stylistic match-up. Spivak is deathly slow on the feet, despite refining his fundamentals over his UFC tenure, and is primed to walk on to a Black Beast highlight reel.
No @TheBeast_UFC Fight Week is complete without a little heat
Devin Jung may have been iced in just over three minutes last time out, yet a loss to Dustin Jacoby is nothing compared to the black mark of a year-2020 draw to Smilin' Sam Alvey. Da Un Jung is unlikely to ever stray from his consistent boxing rhythm. The South Korean was just unfortunate to face Jacoby - a taller, more technical and experienced version of himself on the feet.(13-7)
Devin Clark (13-7)
After snapping his losing streak with a surprise Heavyweight win over William Knight, Clark dropped down to Light Heavyweight to be dismantled on the mat by Azamat Murzakanov. Clark is phenomenally durable and a strong athlete but he has regularly shown technical deficiencies in one of the UFC's weakest divisions for talent.
Jung vs Clark Prediction: Jung Decision
Jung may have been iced by Dustin Jacoby in under a round last time out, but the South Korean should be far too polished on the outside to be troubled by Clark on the feet. The American is phenomenally durable and a strong athlete but he has regularly shown technical deficiencies in one of the UFC's weakest divisions for talent.
It's okay, we can all admit that a bit of sick hit the back of our throats when we saw this match-up. Why has the UFC pitted the division's most heinous 'lay-n-prayers' on the Main Card? Tybura was able to stop the rampant hype train of Alexandr Romanov through virtue of having a gas tank longer than a single round. The Pole remains a controlling wrestler with unambiguous striking.
Blagoy Ivanov (19-4)
Blagoy Ivanov's recovery from a stabbing to the chest is miraculous. How do I know? That would be because the commentary team has to bring it up to fill the time whenever the Bulgarian fights. Ivanov's successful Sambo background never fully transitioned to the octagon, instead relying on his ridiculous chin to wear opponents down.
Tybura vs Ivanov Prediction: Tybura Decision
The fans lose in this one. Tybura was able to stop the rampant hype train of Alexandr Romanov through virtue of having a gas tank longer than a single round. The Pole remains a controlling wrestler with unambiguous striking, but he will at least attempt to set some sort of pace, unlike Ivanov.
Doo Ho Choi returns to the octagon three years after his entertaining yet demoralising loss to Charles Jourdain. After stringing together a 3-0 (3 first-round KOs) start to his UFC career, the South Korean has since lost his last three fights and failed to taste victory since 2016. Injuries have hampered Starboy's return, yet even in his losses to strong competition, Choi has shown glimpses of his former skills to suggest he's still got it.
Kyle Nelson (13-5)
Kyle Nelson's 1-4 UFC record is a fair assessment of his time in the organisation. The Canadian succeeded in the regionals with his power wrestling base but he has managed just a 10% takedown accuracy in the UFC. As such, he is left stranded on the feet against sharper, more athletic, strikers.
Choi vs Nelson Prediction: Choi TKO Round 2
Injuries have hampered Starboy's return, yet even in his losses to strong competition, Choi has shown glimpses of his former skills to suggest he's still got it. Nelson is relatively heavy-handed but has been totally neutralised in his wrestling (10% TD accuracy).
DWCS victor, Yusaku Kinoshita, earned his ticket to the UFC off the back of a delightful counter left hook that toppled the towering 6'3" frame of Jose Henrique Souza. The Japanese prospect is just 22 years old and has never reached the final bell in any of his fights. It's too early to bang the drums just yet, but a powerful Southpaw with solid wrestling in the locker would be a welcome addition to the 170lb roster.
Adam Fugitt (8-3)
Drafted in to fall over to Michael Morales, Adam Fugitt managed to stick to the script. The large Welterweight was punished on the feet for his squared-on striking while the American failed to land 7 of 8 attempted takedowns.
Kinoshita vs Fugitt Prediction: Kinoshita Submission Round 2
Kinoshita is still a work in progress at 22 years old yet he holds a stark athletic advantage over Adam Fugitt. Expecting the Japanese prospect to dictate early exchanges and punishing Fugitt's increasingly sloppy takedowns.
Anshul Jubli, a former math tutor from Uttarakhand is seeking to leave India's mark in the UFC's landscape. The undefeated 28-year-old had only fought on the questionable Indian regional scene (Matrix Fight Night) before a split decision win over Kyung Pyo Kim. Jubli bullied his opponents on the ground before petering out in an ugly affair against stiffer opposition on Road to UFC.
Jeka Saragih (13-2)
The former One Pride MMA Lightweight Champion, Jeka Saragih, earned two stoppage victories on the Road to UFC ahead of the final. Saragih's slight size could be an issue if he ends up on his back. The Indonesian's volume and tenacity on the feet could swing the judges, however.
Jubli vs Saragih Prediction: Saragih Decision
Jubli bullied his opponents on the ground in the regionals before petering out in an ugly affair against stiffer opposition on Road to UFC. Jeka Saragih's slight size could be an issue if he ends up on his back. Backing the Indonesian's volume and tenacity on the feet to swing the scorecards, however.
We've got a banger on our hands between Anshul Jubli & KyeongPyo Kim
Zha Yi, hailing from China, has carved through a litany of push-overs on the regional scene. Against sterner opposition on the Road to UFC, Yi showcased heavy-handed aggression with a recklessness that will be punished swiftly if he moves up the ladder.
Jeong Yeong Lee (9-1)
The former Road FC champion, Jeong Yeong Lee, has booked his final place off the back of two first-round stoppages. The Korean Tiger has spent little over a minute fighting in the Road to UFC, so there isn't much tape to go off. Based on his fights from a few years ago, Lee owns a ferocious killer instinct but is willing to drop his hands and run head-first into danger for the finish.
Yi vs Lee Prediction: Lee TKO Round 2
The Korean Tiger has spent little over a minute fighting in the Road to UFC, backing up the ferocious killer instinct prevalent throughout his career. Lee does tend to drop defensive sensibilities in search of the finish, however, which could be dangerous against Yi's unrefined yet heavy hands.
"The Korean Tiger" Jeong Yeong Lee only needed 36 and 42 seconds to finish two opponents and get to the finals!
Undefeated Japanese prospect, Rinya Nakamura, boasted a long and successful wrestling career before transitioning to MMA. The 27-year-old has cruised through a mixed bag of opposition in the professional ranks, particularly impressing in the Road to UFC with two first-round finishes.
Toshiomi Kazama (10-2)
Fellow countryman Toshiomi Kazama poses a potential banana skin for Nakamura's wrestling-focused game plan. The 25-year-old's slick submission chops could threaten off his back but it's easier to see Nakamura ground'n'pounding his way to victory.
Nakamura vs Kazama Prediction: Nakamura TKO Round 1
Rinya Nakamura represents the most interesting prospect in the Road to UFC finals - boasting an extensive background in wrestling and having enjoyed an easy transition to MMA. Toshiomi Kazama could pose a threat off his back with his submission arsenal but it's easier to see Nakamura ground'n'pounding his way to victory.
Undefeated across his amateur and professional MMA career, Hyun Sung Park fights based on his athletic gifts. Park's aggression on the feet leaves glaring holes to be countered, yet as seen on the Road to UFC, there is often enough volume to keep opponents gun-shy.
Seung Guk Choi (6-1)
26-year-old South Korean, Seung Guk Choi, secured comfortable decision victories over a tough Road to UFC path to the final. Choi is conservative on the feet - making cute adjustments over the rounds - but his inability to dictate the pace of a fight will see him drop close rounds.
Park vs Choi Prediction: Park Decision
Park's aggression on the feet leaves glaring holes to be countered, yet as seen on the Road to UFC, there is often enough volume to keep opponents gun-shy. Choi is conservative on the feet - making cute adjustments over the rounds - but his inability to dictate the pace of a fight will see him drop close rounds.
Last winning in 2019 against the God-awful Nadia Kassem, spiralling down an 0-4 streak and declining athletically at 33 years old - it is a surprise that the UFC is choosing to stick with Ji Yeon Kim. Kim is granite chinned yet fails to use her length effectively, opting instead to sit in the pocket and rock'em sock'em with low-level brawlers.
Mandy Bohm (7-2)
Having lost both of her UFC fights across 2021-2022, Bohm returns again in hopes of achieving the fateful 3 loss + 3-year streak. Bohm was dominated on the mat by Victoria Leonardo after being picked apart on the feet by Ariane Lipski.
Kim vs Bohm Prediction: Kim Decision
Having lost both of her UFC fights across 2021-2022, Bohm returns again in hopes of achieving the fateful 3 loss + 3-year streak. Kim is granite chinned yet fails to use her length effectively, opting instead to sit in the pocket and rock'em sock'em with low-level brawlers. Somehow, Bohm appears to be of an even lower quality
All my homies LOVE The Iron Turtle. Jun Yong Park has returned with a confident two-fight streak after being slept by Gregory Rodrigues. The 31-year-old is durable and adaptive yet often leans towards firefights in the pocket - an area in which he would excel if not at a size disadvantage.
Denis Tiuliulin (11-6)
Mr kill or be killed, Denis Tiuliulin. The 34-year-old was fortunate to face a mentally shot Jamie Pickett en route to his two-round beatdown victory. Tiuliulin will thrive in the scrappy brawl on the inside that Park will bring, yet he will struggle when the South Korean threatens with his wrestling.
Park vs Tiuliulin Prediction: Park Submission Round 2
Jun Yong Park is durable and adaptive yet often leans towards firefights in the pocket. Tiuliulin will thrive in such conditions yet he will struggle when the South Korean threatens with his wrestling.
Leaving Tatsuro Taira at the bottom of the card is a strange decision by the UFC matchmakers. The 23-year-old Japanese BJJ whizz is fast rounding out his wrestling. Better yet, the UFC appears to be giving the rare grace to Taira to slowly hone his craft against humbler opposition.
Jesus Aguilar (8-1)
Jesus Aguilar may be on an 8-fight win streak, including a third-round submission victory over Erisson Ferreira on the DWCS, yet few are giving the Mexican prospect a chance. Aguilar, as Taira, is threatening on the mat yet it seems on tape comparison to be a level below his Japanese counterpart.
Taira vs Aguilar Prediction: Taira Decision
Jesus Aguilar may be on an 8-fight win streak, including a third-round submission victory over Erisson Ferreira on the DWCS, yet few are giving the Mexican prospect a chance. Aguilar, as Taira, is threatening on the mat yet it seems on tape comparison to be a level below his Japanese counterpart.
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Da Un Jung is now unbeaten in FIFTEEN FIGHTS. Prospect here! 
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