It's been a minute folks, but I want to get back into blogging more frequently. This is how I got into working with the guys at Bookies Basement and some times you just need to go back to your roots. Without further ado, lets talk PAC 12 Championship tonight.
(All info at time of writing blog)
Spread - Utah +2.5 / USC -2.5
Total - 67.5
ML - Utah +125 / USC -150
Great game to start championship weekend, these two teams met earlier in the year with Utah winning at Home 43-42 in a thriller. I've since gone through and rewatched not only that game, but both Utah and USC's last two games to get a good feel for the teams and to see what we can expect. The game will be played at a neutral field at 7 PM CST in Las Vegas, hosting the Pac 12 championship for the 2nd year in a row.
What to expect? Let's start with USC. They have the most electric player and soon to be Heisman winner Caleb Williams. Caleb has been helped with arguably one of the greatest WR corps in D1 today outside OSU with Mario Williams and Jordan Addison. Here's what I've seen from USC in their last two games that really stuck out. When Caleb has time he isn't going to settle for a short 5 yard under to a drag receiver, he's going to do one of two things - take off with the ball or take it deep to either Addison or Williams. More often than not, it's the later of the two but the fact the option exist really troubles defenses. Where Utah is going to have some problems and I'll touch on later is that USC runs a great draw RPO with their RB committee that A) holds the LB and B) gives a smart QB (which Caleb has very high IQ) the option for a split second to make the play call. They are by far the more athletic of the two teams and speed heavily will be a factor in favor of USC on all aspects of the offense. While their WR's are great, their other key offense players don't really make the impact you see with a championship level caliber team in that their TE and RB's are serviceable and by no means bad, but don't really make the impact or "big play" you'd like to see. On the defensive end I saw really two things that stuck with me when reviewing their game tape. Their defense has a nation leading 23+ turnover margin and leads the nation in 1.92 TO's per game, on the flip side of that - I believe it's because their defense bites on EVERYTHING. You can watch their secondary/LB corp and they watch the QB's eyes for that first route and swarm to it, they bite on pumps and don't handle misdirection well in the passing or running game. Lastly, I'll end wit this - their kicker is great, howevahhh anytime he is within the 30 and is on a hash, don't quite count on it. I saw a few misses from that range, but then again, he was also nailing 45-50 yarders as well.
Let's talk Utah now. This might as well be Dan fuckin Campbell running this team because they absolutely love to go for it on 4th down, whether that's because their kicker is trash or because Utah's HC just loves to gamble who knows? But they're quite good at it for the most part. The play calling is their but have seen them struggle with the execution of the play itself in these scenarios. Their running game will get the job done, but won't "Wow". you in that aspect, but a solid 3-4 YPC is typically what we see from this group. Where I did see success in the running game is they love the Jet Sweep in the RZ and have the slot WR's to successfully pull of the play when needed, expect to see this 2-3 times this game. Kinkade (sp*) is an absolute stud and their #1 target in the pass game at TE. Guy is athletic, tough and knows how to run downhill after the catch. Lastly, for the offensive side of the ball - Cam Rising is an above average QB and knows how to operate this offense efficiently. Kinkade is their #1 option as mentioned above, but he does move the ball around earlier in the down set (1st and 2nd downs). They play mostly in the middle of the field with either post routes or underneaths, and will occasionally toss it out wide deep, and if they do it will be a deep ball. On the defensive side of the ball there are some gaps I noticed. They are okay with letting the underneath throws go through and don't jump those routes. They trust their LB corp to make the play and are okay, for the most part, giving up those 4-5 yard gains underneath. Where they struggle is in two aspects, not containing the RB and letting them pop outside for big gains and WR screens. I saw multiple times where it would be a simple draw play up the gut and while nothing was there, RB for the opposing team would almost always pop out for a 8-10 yard gain each time. Also, on the screen aspect their DB's get demolished by the pulling tackles or other slot receivers and always ends up positive for the opposing team.
Here's what I think from reviewing the games. Utah does a great job of containment from the QB perspective, however, if they don't get pressure on top of that, as they usually just rush 4 with the contain, Caleb is going to take advantage of that with the time, Utah's secondary can hold up much longer than most but after time goes by Caleb will be able to pick that apart unless pressure applied. Also, USC does run the RPO draw very well, if they can get a running game going early on that could be trouble for Utah. On the other side, Utah moves the ball with success gaining great yards in early downs and seemingly always finds themselves in 3rd and shorts - they run Kinkade on the flats to perfection and it shows why they are 8th in the FBS for 3rd down conversions at a solid 50%. They need to continue to attack the middle as USC's pass defense efficiency ranks 91st in the FBS. Overall, I think the balance on Utah's end is what is the difference in this game they are the only Pac12 team that is top 20 in the FBS on both the Offensive and Defensive side of the ball, if they can play smart as they usually do and take care of the ball - I see them covering the +2.5 as I do believe this will be a close game that comes down to the last drive which is why I'm staying away from any ML bets in this play. Also, I'm notoriously bad at picking totals, but the way the data lines up, as much chalk as this may be, I believe Over 67.5 is the play here. This Utah team played in the championship game last year and didn't change their Gameplan one bit, so I could see close to a repeat of their matchup from earlier this season against USC. Enjoy the game - it's going to be a fucking great one.
YB Picks - Utah +2.5
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