It's such a shame that an archaic weigh-in system has put a damper on this weekend's UFC 274 card. Several fighters have claimed that there was an issue with the scales before the weigh ins, resulting in a lot of them weighing in a second time. Two fighters wound up missing weight and, unfortunately, Lightweight champion Charles Oliveira was one of them. He missed championship weight by half a pound on his first try, was shocked, and then missed it by the same amount again. Due to that, he became the first fighter in UFC history to lose their title due to a weight miss. If the athletic commissions could get their act together and just use digital scales, they could've avoided this mess. As it stands now, the title is vacant, and a win for Oliveira would make him the "top contender" for the title he was supposed to defend this weekend.
Even with the stupefying fiasco, there's various things to keep an eye on with this card The main event is even more interesting now, in a way, and may cause more people to root for Oliveira. The co-main event between Rose Namajunas and Carla Esparza is a Strawweight title rematch over seven years in the making.
The rest of the main card will likely cause a lot of sadness to long-time fans of the sport. The featured bout between former interim Lightweight champion Tony Ferguson and recent title challenger Michael Chandler could be very interesting, but would've been more appealing a few years ago. Considering how shopworn Ferguson has looked over his last three fights, this could be a wipeout. The opening two main card bouts are straight out of 2015, with all four fighters involved being at the twilights of their careers. The entire televised prelim card is good and finally fixed, while the early prelims consist of six fights, some of which are interesting. Again, it's a shame that the whole scale situation has hindered the event, but there's no denying that this is a noteworthy card with several recognizable names involved.
Early Prelims (5:30/4:30c, ESPN+)
Fernie Garcia (10-1) vs. Journey Newson (9-3, 1 NC)
The opening bout features Journey Newson against debuting Contender Series alum Fernie Garcia. Garcia got a Contender Series offer after going the distance in five straight fights, and a career where he had zero quality wins. He wound up surprising everyone by winning his fight in the opening minutes, thereby getting a UFC contract. In Newson, he faces a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt with a balanced skillset, but zero wins in the last three years. Newson is 0-2 with a no contest inside the octagon, with the no contest being a quick win that was overturned due to marijuana of all things. It's an interesting enough fight on paper, and one that I think Newson will wind up winning. Prediction: Newson via decision.
Arianne Carnelossi (14-2) vs. Lupita Godinez (7-2)
Godinez has gone the distance in seven of her nine pro fights. I'd rather not talk about Carnelossi for USADA-related reasons. Let's just move on. Prediction: Godinez via decision.
Kleydson Rodrigues (7-1) vs. CJ Vergara (9-3-1)
The next fight doesn't just feature a pair of Contender Series alums going at it. It also features two fighters who were regional champs before getting their chance in the Contender Series. Rodriguez was the Jungle Fight Flyweight champion, while Vergara was the CFFC Flyweight champion. I always find myself somewhat interested in matchups between regional champs, even if their pre-UFC resumes aren't anything special other than their title victories. What I do know is that the few times Vergara has fought anyone close to being of note, he's lost every time, sans his Contender Series fight. Rodriguez may be older and have less fights on his resume, but that also makes him more desperate to win in a way. For that reason alone, I'll pick him to win. Prediction: Rodriguez via decision.
Tracy Cortez (9-1) vs. Melissa Gatto (8-0-2)
Melissa Gatto hasn't won a decision since 2017, whereas seven of the wins during Cortez's nine-fight winning streak have been decisions. The longer this fight goes, the more it favors Cortez. She's 3-0 in the UFC and I definitely think she's going to reach the 4-0 mark with this fight. Prediction: Cortez via decision.
Cameron Vancamp (15-5-1, 1 NC) vs. Andre Fialho (15-4, 1 NC)
I don't understand this matchup. Fialho is a fun and experienced fighter who last four wins have all been first round finishes, and is coming off an emphatic finish over Miguel Baeza. Even though Vancamp is also a finisher, and his grappling ability makes this a clash of styles, shouldn't Fialho be fighting someone higher up the rungs than a newcomer? It should be a fun fight, and I expect Fialho to prove to the UFC that he deserved someone more notable than what he's getting here. Prediction: Fialho via tko, round 2.
(15) Blagoy Ivanov (18-4, 1 NC) vs. Marcos Rogerio de Lima (19-7-1)
You know it's a bad sign when a Heavyweight fight featuring a ranked fighter is taking place on the early prelims. As talented as Ivanov is, the former WSOF Heavyweight champion and Bellator Heavyweight tournament finalist has lost two straight, hasn't fought in two years and has gone the distance in six straight fights. On the other side is de Lima. Even though he's a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt, 14 of his 19 wins have come via knockout, whereas five of his seven losses have been decisions. After alternating wins and losses for most of his Light Heavyweight run in the UFC, he's gone 4-2 since moving up to Heavyweight. He should be able to beat Ivanov at this stage, and that's definitely what the UFC wants. However, I still have my doubts as to whether he can be a ranked fighter. It's purely a hunch and not a smart one, but I'm going to reluctantly pick Ivanov to win a decision. Prediction: Ivanov via decision.
Televised prelims (8/7c, ESPN)
(9) Matt Schnell (15-5, 1 NC) vs. (6) Brandon Royval (13-6)
Over the past few years, Flyweight has been amongst the most entertaining weight classes in the UFC. Of all the fighters in the division, Matt Schnell and Brandon Royval are high up on the list when it comes to the entertainment factor. They also have various other things in common, including black belts in different disciplines (Schnell in Karate and Royval in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu) as well as eight submission wins apiece.
Schnell got knocked out in his first two UFC fights, but has gone 5-1 with a no contest since then. He hasn't had the best of performances in his last two fights, but a win here would definitely get him back on track. Royval has also struggled of late, with two of his last three fights being losses, and the one win being a split decision against Rogerio Bontorin. That said, All but two of his wins have been finishes, while only two of his losses have come via finish. The longer this fight goes, the more it'll hurt him. I'm torn on who to pick, and I know that Royval winning a decision isn't the smartest of picks, but I'm going to have to go with my gut once again. Prediction: Royval via decision.
(11) Macy Chiasson (7-2) vs. (15) Norma Dumont (7-1)
A pair of ranked Bantamweights, fighting in a Featherweight bout, with one of them missing weight because of skeptical scales. That's the case with this fight. If this fight had taken place a few years ago, I would've readily picked Chiasson. Even though she was inexperienced, she looked amazing in her first three UFC fights. Over the last three years though, she's 2-2, went the distance in both wins and got submitted by Raquel Pennington in her last fight. Seeing how Pennington hadn't finished a win in six years heading into that fight, it's a bit of a red flag that Chiasson got finished by her.
Meanwhile, Dumont has gone from being a punching bag against Megan Anderson in her UFC debut in February 2020, to winning three in a row. Even if all three wins were decisions, and Dumont hasn't finished a fight since 2017, she's the one with momentum in this fight. It's entirely possible that Chiasson can go back to her vintage self and dominate this fight, but nothing she's done in the past three years suggests that she will. By default, I have to pick Dumont to win a decision. Prediction: Dumont via decision.
Francisco Trinaldo (27-8) vs. Danny Roberts (18-5)
Of all the fights on the prelims, this is the most intriguing one to me. Trinaldo continues to defy Father Time, going 5-2 in the UFC since turning 40, and should be 6-1 in that span instead. The former Jungle Fight Middleweight champion is by far the most successful TUF: Brazil contestant ever, possessing a 17-7 UFC record that should've been 18-6, if not for an all-time robbery of a loss against Alex Hernandez a few years ago. Even though he's gone the distance in seven of his last nine fights, his fights are consistently enjoyable to watch. He's got good striking, reliable grappling, a good chin and the cardio necessary to win long fights. If he wins this fight, he deserves a ranked opponent while he's still got something left in the tank.
Roberts has also had a sneaky good UFC career, going 7-4 with the promotion. While he's also a balanced fighter like Trinaldo, he's been finished in all five losses he's had over the course of his career. It'd be surprising if Trinaldo gets the finish but since he's fighting Roberts, it's entirely possible. This is a scintillating fight that can go either way, and I think it will end up going the distance. Unlike some of the other fights during this decision streak in the middle of the card, I think this one is going to be a pretty enjoyable one. Prediction: Trinaldo via decision.
Randy Brown (14-4) vs. Khaos Williams (13-2)
In the headlining prelim bout, one of the UFC's best stories in recent times will take on Randy Brown. The story in this instance is Khaos Williams. Heading into 2020, Williams was 9-1 as a pro with five finishes, with only one notable win on his resume. In February 2020, when he got a chance to take on Alex Morono in a short notice UFC debut, he stunned everyone with a 27-second knockout win. That November, he shocked the world once again, by knocking out Abdul Razak Alhassan in 30 seconds. Even though he lost a decision to Michel Pereira in his following fight, he's had two wins in a row since then, including a tko win over Miguel Baeza. Williams went from an unknown entity two years ago, to a must-see fighter at this point.
Brown is on a nice run of his own, winning four of his last five fights. He's a more balanced fighter, but he has been finished due to strikes twice. If he can avoid getting hit by Williams, he can win. He has the ability to take this fight to the ground and make things very hard for Williams. Truth be told, I'm fully expecting him to win a decision. But I'm also tired of picking decisions on this card, and something has to give. If Williams can finish Alex Morono and Abdul Razak Alhassan, he can finish Randy Brown. Prediction: Williams via tko, round 2.
Main Card (10/9c, PPV)
Joe Lauzon (28-15) vs. Donald Cerrone (36-16, 2 NC)
There was a time when a matchup between Joe Lauzon and Donald Cerrone might have made sense. That time was either late 2011 or early 2015. Now, it's a nostalgic matchup between two bonus machines who are on their last legs. Lauzon turns 38 in a few weeks, hasn't fought since October 2019 and has one win over the last five years. His last winning streak was in 2014, and he's 4-6 since then. His grappling has been noted for over a decade, and his penchant for finishing fights made him a longtime fan favorite. However, a lot of people thought he had retired before this fight with Cerrone was announced.
Whereas people thought Lauzon had retired, Cerrone should've retired years ago. An absolute machine who fought three or more times in 14 different years, Cerrone has gone winless over his last six fights, four of which were via finish. I don't think he has anything left in the tank at all at this point. Even if Lauzon's running on empty or near it, he probably has enough to beat Cerrone these days. Either way, I can't watch this fight because I know it'll make me sad. Prediction: Lauzon via tko, round 2.
Maurico Rua (27-12-1) vs. Ovince Saint Preux (25-16)
Everytime Rua fights, one question universally swirls around in MMA fans' minds: "Woah, Shogun is still fighting?" The PRIDE legend and former UFC Heavyweight champion is an all-timer for the amount of highlights and wars he's been a part of over the years, and he deserves all the love that he's garnered throughout his career. Even though he's 5-2-1 over his last eight fights, he's 40 now, and he needs to strongly consider retirement.
OSP is 39, so it's not like he's a spring chicken either. He's just 3-6 over his last nine fights, but he did knock Rua out in 34 seconds in their 2014 encounter. I'd love for Rua to win for the nostalgia factor, but I can't pick that to happen in good conscience. Even if OSP doesn't have much left, I do think he has more than Rua at this point. I don't know if either of them can fight for 15 minutes anymore, but I don't want either to get finished, so I'll have to pick OSP via decision to avoid emotional pain as much as possible. Prediction: Saint Preux via decision.
(7) Tony Ferguson (25-6) vs. (5) Michael Chandler (22-7)
The featured bout of the evening could either be really fun, or really depressing. Chandler is a Bellator legend who had a stunning finish of Dan Hooker in his UFC debut, before losing a vacant title fight against Charles Oliveira in May of last year. He then participated in an all-time great war against Justin Gaethje, once again coming up on the short end. The only other losing streak of Chandler's career was in 2014, after which he won 10 of his next 12 fights before going on his current losing streak.
At least Chandler's losing streak featured some shining moments for him. The same can't be said for Tony Ferguson, who went from going 18-1 heading into 2020, to losing 11 rounds in a row since then. He got destroyed by Justin Gaethje in their May 2020 interim title bout, then lost one-sided decisions to Charles Oliveira and Beneil Dariush. He's 38 now, Father Time seems to have fully conquered him, and this is his last chance to reclaim potential contender status. As much as I'd love for him to have a vintage performance, I can't see it happening. Chandler can be reckless at times, but I don't know if Ferguson has enough left in the tank to capitalize. Whether I want to or not, I have to pick Chandler in this fight. Prediction: Chandler via decision.
UFC Women's Strawweight championship: (C) Rose Namajunas (11-4) vs. (2) Carla Esparza (18-6)
In December 2014, former Invicta Strawweight champion Carla Esparza and Rose Namajunas fought in the Ultimate Fighter 20 Finale for the inaugural UFC Strawweight title. Despite a meager 2-1 pro record, Namajunas clawed her way to the finale, only to get submitted by the vastly more experienced Esparza in the third round. Since that fight, Namajunas has turned into an elite fighter, going 9-2, with one loss being a split decision, and the other being a slam knockout to Jessica Andrade. She's in her second title run, is a complete fighter and is in the prime of her career.
Esparza may not be in her prime anymore, but she is in the best stretch of her career since her initial title win. After winning the title in December 2014, she went 3-4 over her next seven fights and looked like she was done with being a contender. However, she turned things around and is now on a five-fight winning streak. Even though she only has one finish since beating Rose, she's earned this title shot and has a chance to show if she still has her number.
It's a good fight on paper, and if Esparza can take Rose down, she can win enough rounds to take the title. It's not a farfetched idea either, and Esparza has more tools now than she did in their first encounter. However, I can't pick against Rose here. She is in her prime, she isn't green anymore and she has a chance to get revenge. I expect her to get the job done, even if it may be a closer fight than many might expect for it to be. Prediction: Namajunas via decision.
UFC Lightweight championship: (c*) Charles Oliveira (32-8, 1 NC) vs. (1) Justin Gaethje (23-3)
As mentioned above, there's more drama with this fight than there was before the weigh-ins. This is a title fight for Gaethje, but is a top contender fight for the champion, Charles Oliveira. Suffice to say it's a hot mess of a situation. Before all this, I would've picked Oliveira to withstand Gaethje's blitz, take him down and submit him. Now, it's a bit more of a question, since it's fair to wonder what Oliveira's mental state is at the moment. Is his head on straight after this whole fiasco, which might not be his fault at all? If his head is on straight, I think he will be even more focused and will do what he needs to do.
I can go in-depth with my analysis of the fight, and go over how Oliveira is a fantastic grappler with 29 finishes in his 32 fights, including eight finishes during his nine-fight winning streak. I can mention how Gaethje is still a highlight reel machine, with 83% of his wins being knockouts, and how he has the wrestling credentials to do okay on the ground against 90% of opponents not named Khabib Nurmavomedov. I can mention how Gaethje doesn't have to worry about a weigh-in fiasco, or getting stripped of a title, while Oliveira does.
However, I don't really want to. It's been done to death, and I'm fully biased in rooting for Oliveira now. He used to have weight issues as a Featherweight, but had made weight for all 12 of his Lightweight bouts before this one. I don't believe for a single second that he missed weight this time, and fully believe that the allegations from other fighters who had weigh-in issues on this card are legitimate. I was going to pick him anyway and now, I want him to win even more than before. Prediction: Oliveira via submission, round 3.
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