There are two ways to look at this Saturday's UFC on ESPN+ card. The pessimistic view is that this is a largely irrelevant card with virtually no name value, and is weak even by ESPN+ standards as a result. The optimistic view is that this card is full of entertaining fighters, should produce quite a few highlights and is like a vintage Ultimate Fighter Finale card with less name recognition. It makes sense too, since TUF Finales usually consist of fun action fighters, and the main card bout between Tresean Gore and Bryan Battle was supposed to be the Middleweight final at the most recent TUF Finale anyways.

If you simply want to watch fun fights at a decent hour, then this card is worth checking out. It has a main event pitting a pair of top ten Middleweights looking to become contenders, a fun co-main event and a bunch of finishers. With the prelims getting underway at 4pm Eastern and the main card at 7pm Eastern, it's not going to drag like a PPV either. In a way, this card is a segue into the really nice cards coming up next week and the week after. If you view this as a bridge to those events, it's a nice prelude to them, at least as far as entertainment value is concerned. Now let's break down the fights themselves.

Preliminary Card (4/3c, ESPN+)

Denys Bodnar (16-3) vs. Malcolm Gordon (13-5)

The opening bout of the card will pit former TKO MMA Flyweight champion Malcolm Gordon against finishing machine Denys Bodnar. Gordon is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt with ten finishes to his credit, including six submissions. However, he has been finished in all five of his losses, including four knockouts. Bodnar has finished all of his wins, including ten via submission, and has only been finished once in his career. While that looks impressive on paper, it should be noted that 13 of his 16 wins came against opponents who had three wins or less, and only one of his first 13 wins were against opponents who had two more wins than losses. He's faced a couple decent journeymen recently, but he needs to make a statement in this fight. I don't see him submitting Gordon though, and I can't see this fight going his way if it goes long. Gordon needs this win, and I think he'll get it via decision. Prediction: Gordon via decision.

Jason Witt (19-7) vs. Phillip Rowe (8-3)

Witt is 2-2 in the UFC, with both losses being quick first round knockout losses. Rowe is 8-1 since dropping his first two fights, has finished all of his wins, and has decent power. Unless Witt can take him down and grind it out, I think Rowe will get the job done. Prediction: Rowe via tko, round 2.

Jailton Almeida (14-2) vs. Danilo Marques (11-3)

Almeida and Marques have had 30 combined fights, of which 26 have ended via finish. Marques is entering his fourth UFC fight while Almeida is making his debut, yet Almeida has the better resume. Marques' two UFC wins came against Mike Rodriguez and Khadis Ibragimov, who went 2-5 and 0-4 in their UFC careers before getting cut. He was 9-2 before coming to the UFC, but over half of those wins came against opponents who had 1 win or less in their careers. Of the other four wins, two of them came against opponents with a combined 50 losses. In other words, he's a can crusher who has had luck in the UFC.

Almeida, on the other hand, is on a nine-fight win streak and has faced some really experienced and quality opponents in that span. He's a rare newcomer who has actually punched his ticket to the UFC, and I think he'll make an example out of Marques in this fight. Prediction: Almeida via tko, round 3.

Alexis Davis (20-11) vs. Julija Stoliarenko (9-5-2)

The lone women's bout of the evening will see former Women's Bantamweight title challenger Alexis Davis take on former Invicta Bantamweight champion Julija Stoliarenko, in a fight where both might be fighting for their UFC careers. Julija was on The Ultimate Fighter in 2018, before which she faced nothing but cans. She lost to Pannie Kianzad in the semifinals, got a fight against Leah Letson in the finale, and didn't get a contract after losing that fight. She then fought some more cans before getting a title shot in Invicta despite never fighting previously for the promotion, won the title via split decision and got signed by the UFC. Since doing so, she's 0-2.

Davis, who has been with the UFC for nearly nine years, went 6-2 to start her UFC career. However the Jiu Jitsu and Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt has lost four of her last five fights, is 37 and is in the twilight of her career. She's gone the distance in each of her last seven fights, and she is better on the ground than Julija is. If she can't win this fight, she needs to retire. Prediction: Davis via decision.

Marc-Andre Barriault (13-4, 1 NC) vs. Chidi Njokuani (20-7, 1 NC)

Next up is former Bellator and RFA veteran Chidi Njokuani's UFC debut, as he gets set to face former TKO Middleweight and Light Heavyweight double champion Marc-Andre Barriault. Njokuani is a pure striker, with 12 knockout wins to his credit. He had a stretch where he went 8-1 with a no contest over a ten-fight span, leading to a Bellator contract. He won his first four Bellator fights, but lost three of his next four fights there. It looked like his best days were behind him, but a win in the LFA led to a Contender Series shot for him. He won the fight and will now make his UFC debut after spending his first 14 years in the sport outside of it.

On the other side is Marc-Andre Barriault, a fellow striker who was a double champion in TKO MMA before coming to the UFC. He was 11-1 prior to entering the octagon, but lost three straight tough decisions to start his UFC career. He then defeated Oskar Piechota, but the fight was overturned to a no contest after he failed a test. He has since won two straight fights, has found his mojo and is looking to extend his winning streak to three. He'll probably do it, but I'm going to take a chance and pick Njokuani. This is Njokuani's last gasp, his shot to make good on a UFC journey over 14 years in the making. Both he and Barriault have a similar skillset, and you never know how fights like that may go. I'm going to pick the underdog in this one. Prediction: Njokuani via decision.

Hakeem Dawudu (12-2-1) vs. Michael Trizano (9-1)

Dawudu is 6-1 since his UFC debut, Trizano is a former TUF winner who is 3-1 in the UFC, and this is a matchup that should probably be co-headlining the show, at least based on UFC success and records. So why is it stuck on the prelims? One reason: decisions. Dawudu has gone the distance in five of his last six fights, while Trizano has done the same in three of his four UFC fights. Dawudu is a good striker, while Trizano is the better wrestler, and this fight has a chance to be a bit of a snoozer. I hope it isn't, but there's a realistic possibility that it will be. Prediction: Dawudu via decision.

Miles Johns (12-1) vs. John Castaneda (18-5)

In the headlining prelim bout, former LFA Bantamweight champion Miles Johns will look to go to 4-1 in the UFC when he faces former Combate Americas Bantamweight champion John Castaneda. Castaneda is a balanced fighter with eight knockout, five submission and five decision wins. Four of his five losses were fights that went the distance. He's 1-1 in the UFC, 2-3 in his last five overall and a win here would be huge for him.

As for Johns, things have turned around for him after he turned into a decision machine for six fights. In his last two fights, he's pulled off a pair of third round knockout victories, earning him performance bonuses for each one. His UFC resume isn't good though, and a win against Castaneda could vault him into a higher level of competition. It's a toss-up of a fight the more I think about it, but I guess I'll pick Castaneda? Prediction: Castaneda via decision.

Main Card (7/6c, ESPN+)

Julian Erosa (26-9) vs. Steven Peterson (19-9)

In 2015, Julian Erosa participated in The Ultimate Fighter and got to have two fights in the UFC thereafter. He went 1-1, and the UFC decided not to bring him back for a third fight. A few years later, he wound up on the Contender Series, won, and got back to the UFC. Three straight losses later, he got cut once again.

Fast forward one year, and the pandemic hit. Erosa had won one fight since his UFC release, but got a chance to return since the UFC was saturating cards with as many fighters as they could. Where many have failed, Erosa began to shine. He has gone 3-1 in his current UFC stint, has finished all three of those wins, and is finally looking like the action fighter he used to be on the regional scene. He has finished 23 of his 26 wins to date, has almost as many knockouts as submissions and always looks to put on a show nowadays. He deserves a better fight than what he's getting here, especially since Peterson has fought just once since 2019 and has missed weight for the second straight fight. Peterson has only been finished once, so this should be a fun fight with Erosa winning in the end. Prediction: Erosa via decision.

Tresean Gore (3-0) vs. Bryan Battle (6-1)

Last August, the UFC held its first TUF Finale in nearly three years. The Middleweight finale was supposed to be between Gore and Battle, but Gore was unable to fight due to an injury. Battle won against an alternate that night, and the UFC decided to rebook the fight between Battle and Gore, and that's why this is on the main card.

Even though both of them said they're not looking at this as a TUF Finale fight, the fans still are. It's an intriguing matchup, as Gore is a wrestler with a very good ground game, while Battle has had five of his seven fights end via submission. Gore is the better athlete, but Battle has more experience. Neither has a great resume, but that's usually the case with newcomers from TUF. My initial feeling was that Gore should win this, but I've started to feel conflicted recently. I'm still going to pick Gore, but it's a close call. Prediction: Gore via decision.

Sam Alvey (33-16-1, 1 NC) vs. Brandon Allen (17-5)

Sam Alvey is 0-6-1 since mid-2018. He should've been cut years ago, but is still around, possibly due to his anti-union stance. If he was facing a newcomer, I'd still pick against him. Against Allen, who is 5-2 in the UFC? No chance I'm picking Alvey. Prediction: Allen via submission, round 2.

Shavkat Rakhmanov (14-0) vs. Carlston Harris (17-4)

Rakhmanov is unbeaten, has finished all his fights, is a former M-1 Middleweight champion and is only 27-years-old. He has looked great in all of his fights, including his two UFC fights, and has contender potential. Harris is 9-1 over his last 10 fights, has also looked great in his two UFC fights and has gone from a decision machine to a primed finisher. This is a great fight on paper and deserves more attention than it's getting. I'm going to pick Rakhmanov, but it sucks that this fight isn't getting the attention it should be. Prediction: Rakhmanov via tko, round 3.

Punahele Soriano (9-1) vs. Nick Maximov (7-0)

Does this fight deserve co-main status on any UFC card? No, but it should be entertaining, which is a theme for this card and its bout order. Soriano was 8-0 entering his fight with Brendan Allen last Summer, but lost a decision that night. He's still a powerful striker, has a decent ground game and is a threat to end the fight at any moment. Maximov is best known for being a protege of the Diaz brothers, and is 7-0 in his young career. He finished his first five fights to earn a Contender Series bout, but all five of those fights were against cans. He went the distance in his fight on the show, got a contract anyways and then won a decision in his UFC debut. Suffice to say, I'm not sold on him, and I think he will get destroyed in this fight. Prediction: Soriano via tko, round 1.

(6) Jack Hermansson (22-6) vs. (7) Sean Strickland (24-3)

In the main event, ranked Middleweights Jack Hermansson and Sean Strickland will duke it out to see which one can get a top five opponent next. Hermansson went 3-2 to start his UFC career, but a four-fight winning streak garnered him a headlining fight against Jared Cannonier in Copenhagen. He lost that fight, but is 2-1 since then, and is coming off an impressive win over Edmen Shahbazyan. He was primarily known for his striking in his pre-UFC and early UFC career, but has turned into a relatively complete fighter since then.

The one thing that Hermansson struggles with is pressure, and that happens to be something that Sean Strickland is good at. Strickland doesn't have a lot of power, but he is a consistent striker who does have ten knockout wins. He is 11-3 in the UFC, 4-0 since moving up to Middleweight and has only been finished once in his 27-fight career.

This fight feels tailor-made for Strickland to win and become a potential contender, but I really get Kattar vs. Chikadze vibes from this. Giga Chikadze was looking really good in the UFC heading into the Kattar fight last month, and many expected him to win before succumbing to top contenders. Instead, Kattar surprised a lot of people and dominated the fight. Like Chikadze, Strickland has been on a roll, but doesn't seem to have the skillset to succeed against his division's elite. Hermansson is in a similar spot in his division as Kattar is in the Featherweight division. Maybe I'm loonie for this, but I'm going to pick Hermansson to win a decision here, even if the opposite feels virtually inevitable. Prediction: Hermansson via decision

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