Throughout the pandemic, the UFC has held a ton of events in the APEX. Of the non-PPV offerings that have taken place there, some have been great, some have been good, some have been bad and some have been fine but forgettable. Lately, a lot of the "Fight Night" Cards have fallen into the latter category. Thankfully, this Saturday's event has the potential to be better than that.
The main event will be a showdown between hard-hitting Light Heavyweight sluggers Thiago Santos and Johnny Walker, while the co-main event will be a styles clash between Kevin Holland and Kyle Daukaus. The featured bout is a guaranteed barnburner between Welterweights Alex Oliveira and Niko Price being the featured bout.
Highlight machine Misha Cirkunov in the second bout of the main card, and a battle between Lightweight strikers Alex Hernandez and Mike Breeden will be in the main card's opening slot. Even though a key Women's Bantamweight bout between Aspen Ladd and Macy Chiasson had to be scrapped during the weigh-ins, the main card is still quite good. The prelims are pretty nice too, especially for a Fight Night card. If the card lives up to its potential, it could go down as one of the better Fight Night events of the year. Add in the respectable start time, and there's little to complain about with this card.
Preliminary Card (4/3c, ESPN+)
Alejandro Perez (21-8-1) vs. Johnny Eduardo (28-12)
Perez has been with the UFC for seven years. Eduardo has been in the UFC for ten years. The fact that they are opening this card is a warning to both of them, as a loss for either could result in a pink slip. Perez, who won the Bantamweight tournament of the first ever season of The Ultimate Fighter: Latin America, went 7-1 over his first eight UFC bouts. However, he's lost two straight and hasn't fought in over two years. His only finish since 2016 was three years ago. He desperately needs the win in this fight.
Eduardo is 43, hasn't fought since June 2018, hasn't won a fight since late 2016 and is just 1-3 since 2014. The fact that he's even set to compete this weekend is amazing on its own right. In fact, this is just his seventh UFC fight since signing with the promotion a decade ago. A black belt in Brazilian Jiu Jitsu, Eduardo is usually a fun fighter to watch. However, it's been three and a half years since his last fight, and he was struggling even before that. He's a throwback fighter and his time is likely up. It'd be awesome to see him turn back the clock and win, but I can't pick it to happen even if I want to. Prediction: Perez via decision.
Stephanie Egger (5-2) vs. Shanna Young (7-3)
Of the seven fights on the prelims of this card, three of them are Women's bouts, none of which feature Strawweights. The first of those fights is this one, with Shanna Young looking to get her first ever UFC win as she takes on Stephanie Egger. Young went 6-1 to start her career and get a shot in Dana White's Contender Series, but lost her fight against Sarah Alpar and her ticket to the UFC as a result. After one win in Invicta, she got a chance to come to the UFC. She lost a decision to Macy Chiasson in February 2020, and is fighting for the first time since then. Her only win of note came against Pam Sorenson in early 2016, and it's fair to wonder if she can win in the UFC.
Egger also has just one notable win from several years ago, has no other quality wins and has an 0-1 UFC record just like Young. She's more of a finisher than Young is, but who knows if she can finish someone in the UFC. All of her finishes came in the first round, so she'll probably have to try and overwhelm Young early in order to have the best chance to win. I don't think she'll do it, but it's also too early in both of their careers to assume anything. Prediction: Young via decision.
Douglas Silva de Andrade (26-4-1) vs. Gaetano Pirello (15-6-1)
There's two prelim bouts on this card that have potential of garnering a postfight bonus, and they're happening one after the other. This is the first of them. De Andrade hasn't had a knockout in five years, but he still has 20 finishes on his resume. He was a whopping 22-0with a no contest to start his career, and is 4-4 in the UFC. Even though most of his fights inside the octagon have gone the distance, his fights are still relatively entertaining.
Coincidentally, if nothing else, Pirello is also very entertaining. He has only gone the distance three times in his 21-fight career, as opposed to having 13 fights end in the first round. Like a lot of newcomers these days, his wins have mostly been against cans, while his losses have all been against opponents who are at least somewhat proven. Until he beats someone in the UFC or fights someone who is completely washed, I can't pick him. Seing how his fights tend to end early, even though de Andrade hasn't had a finish since 2016, this might be the fight where his drought comes to an end. Prediction: De Andrade via tko, round 1.
Jamie Mullarkey (13-4) vs. Devonte Smith (11-2)
Following a Bantamweight bout that should be a ton of fun, Jamie Mullarkey and Devonte Smith will partake in a fight that has tons of potential for a highlight-reel finish. Jamie Mularkey has finished 12 of his 13 wins, has only gone the distance three times in his career, and one of those was a Fight of the Year contender against Brad Riddell. Smith has never gone the distance, has had eight of his 14 fights end in the first round and is 3-1 in the UFC. Almost every fight he's had to date has been entertaining. Mullarkey can be dangerous, but this is a fight that Smith should win. Prediction: Smith via tko, round 2.
Bethe Correia (11-5-1) vs. (15) Karol Rosa (14-3)
What a downturn it's been for Bethe Correia in recent years. Entering August 2015, she was 9-0 and was about to take on Ronda Rousey for the Bantamweight title. Since then, she is 2-5-1, has missed weight twice, and has been cut before being brought back for a potential retirement bout. Said retirement bout was supposed to be against Yanan Wu last December, but got postponed to January. Then, Correia needed surgery to get her appendix removed and was replaced from the fight. Fast forward to now, and she's facing Karol Rosa.
While Correia has a 70% decision rate, Rosa's rate is just over 50%. She's gone the distance in all three of her UFC fights and has arguably won every round she's had inside the octagon so far. She's won five straight overall and even if she may not be a contender as of now, she should still handle Correia with relative ease. Prediction: Rosa via decision.
Antonina Shevchenko (9-3) vs. Casey O'Neill (7-0)
Two straight women's bouts on the prelims, with zero Strawweights involved? That's what the UFC is doing on this card. Anyways, Antonina has gone just 2-3 since winning her first two UFC bouts, but all those fights were against established opponents. She clearly has her ceiling and has already reached it, but she can still beat newer and lower level competition for the most part. O'Neill is a decade younger than her, is 2-0 in the UFC, is more well-rounded and has more potential. The UFC clearly knows this and is hoping for her to get a win over someone with a bit of name recognition. It's a logical fight, and one that O'Neill should and likely will win. Prediction: O'Neill via decision.
Joe Solecki (11-2) vs. Jared Gordon (17-4)
In the headlining prelim bout, Brazilian Jiu Jutso black belt Joe Solecki will take on Jared Gordon. Solecki has finished eight of his 11 wins, seven of them by way of submission. He's 3-0 in the UFC and is coming off a win over longtime fan favorite Jim Miller. In Gordon, he takes on a well-rounded opponent with a great comeback story.
Gordon won his first two UFC fights before dropping three of four. Since the skid, he has won two straight. His last win via finish came in his UFC debut back in 2017, but that doesn't matter here. What does matter is that he's never been submitted, and that all four of his losses have been via knockout. Against Solecki, chances of getting knocked out are as slim as can be. This could be a boring fight when all is said and done, but Solecki should prevail in the end. Regardless, Gordon is a good test for him at this stage. Prediction: Solecki via decision.
Main Card (7/6c, ESPN+)
Mike Breeden (10-3) vs. Alex Hernandez (12-4)
The opening bout of the main card was supposed to pit Hernandez against Leonardo Santos, but an injury to the latter gave Mike Breeden to make his UFC debut on short notice. It's a bummer that Santos is out, but this should be a fun striking matchup. Breeden is a boxer with eight knockout wins. Win or lose, his fights often deliver. It's a sensible matchup too, as Hernandez should be 1-4 in his last five, if not for one of the worst judges decisions in MMA history. Hernandez needs to face lower-level fighters or newcomers at this point, and that's what Breeden is. Hernandez is predominantly a striker too, and that's wh this fight will likely stay on the feet. I'll pick Hernandez to win, but Breeden puling off the upset is a juicy possibility. Prediction: Hernandez via decision.
Krzysztof Jotko (22-5) vs. (13-lhw) Misha Cirkunov (15-6)
Up next is a must-win fight for Misha Cirkunov, who always puts on a show regardless of the end result. Over the last 10 years, 11 of his 13 fights have ended in the first round. Since 2016, he's been on a seven-fight streak of fights ending in the opening round. He's also lost four of his last six, with three of those losses coming within 72 seconds. He's moving down to Middleweight to try and get things right, and the UFC is not giving him an easy opponent.
Jotko may have gone the distance in 12 of his last 16 fights, and his only finish since 2012 came five years ago, but he is still quite a good fighter. He is 22-5 overall, 9-5 in the UFC and has won three of his last four. If Jotko wins, it will basically be expected. If Jotko finishes the fight, Cirkunov needs to strongly consider retirement. That said, I'm picking Cirkunov, if only because I miss the days of his prime and want to see him get another highlight victory. Prediction: Cirkunov via vintage submission, round 2.
Alex Oliveira (22-10-1, 2 NC) vs. Niko Price (14-5, 2 NC)
The featured bout of the evening has wild war written all over it. Not every Oliveira fight winds up being great, but most of them do. At the same time, pretty much every time Price fights, the result is chaos and sheer entertainment. Both have had some struggles lately, as Price is 2-4 with a no contest in his last seven fights, while Oliveira is 2-5 over the last three years. Neither is likely to lose their jobs with a loss, but Oliveira might have a short leash at this point. I'm picking Price, but the biggest winner of this fight will likely be the fans. Prediction: Price via decision or late submission.
(14)Kevin Holland (21-7) vs. Kyle Daukaus (10-2)
In the co-main event, the often-entertaining Kevin Holland will take on grappler Kyle Daukaus. Last year, Holland tied the UFC record of most wins in a calendar year, notching five victories in that span. Since the start of this year, he's gone 0-2, both in main events against wrestlers, while losing all ten rounds in the process. One would think that the UFC would put him up against a striker to boost his confidence, but they're having him face a pure grappler instead.
That grappler is Kyle Daukaus. Of Daukaus' 10 wins, eight have been submissions. His two losses were both decisions. There is no way he will try and stand with Holland. If he does, he'll get sparked. If he takes Holland down though, and he'll probably be able to do so, then this becomes his fight to lose. Even then, I'm picking Holland. Holland knows his back is against the wall and that he needs a win. I'm expecting him to come out guns blazing, looking for a quick victory. Call me crazy, but I think he'll pull it off. Prediction: Holland via knockout, round 1.
(5) Thiago Santos (21-9) vs. (10) Johnny Walker (18-5)
In the main event, a pair of knockout artists will meet in the center of the octagon, as former Light Heavyweight title challenger Thiago Santos will take on absolute wild man Johnny Walker. In 23 career fights, Walker has gone the distance just twice. Seventeen of his 23 fights have ended in the first round. He's 4-2 in the UFC and has finished all of those wins in the opening stanza. His losses were rough and he has a ceiling, but he looked to be back to form in his last fight.
On the other side is Thiago Santos. After losing two of his first three fights in the UFC, he went 9-3 over his next 12. He then moved up to Light Heavyweight and won three straight before facing John Jones for the title in July 2019. In the title fight, he looked great despite dealing with a knee injury and sustaining another one during the fight. He lost the decision that night, and worked hard to get back to work. He looked great in the opening round of his return bout against Glover Teixeira, but the tide turned and he got finished in the third round. Then he lost a decision to Aleksandar Rakic.
If Santos loses to Walker and doesn't fight again before January, he'll be entering the age of 38 on a four-fight losing streak. He needs to win this fight, and if he can avoid the early flurry, I think he can do it. It's fair to wonder what he has left in the tank, but if he can't beat Walker, then his run as a contender will likely come to an end. I think he'll survive early on, pick things up over the next round or so and will end it in the third round. Prediction: Santos via tko, round 3.
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