The best thing about this Saturday's UFC card is the start time. Since the prelims start at 1pm Eastern and the main card starts at four, nobody will feel guilty for taking time out of their Saturday nights to watch it. There's some decent fights on the card, but it feels like a hollow and lifeless offering, even by pandemic era ESPN+ standards.
The main event is an important fight, but the rest of the card is mostly prelim quality, with a few fights that could pass as undercard bouts on slightly better cards. There's a bit of name recognition, and a few fights that could be fun from a regional MMA perspective, but this isn't the type of card that anyone other than the most extreme of hardcores would devote hours to watching. There's a reason why this card is so shallow, and every once in a while, less appealing cards can over-deliver and be sleeper hits. Who knows, maybe that happens this time too. Stranger things have happened.
Steve Garcia (11-4) vs. Charlie Ontiveros (11-7)
Garcia has finished eight of his 11 wins with strikes, while his only loss via finish was a submission back in June 2018. He lost his short notice UFC debut against Luis Peรฑa in February 2020, and has had a slew of matchups get scrapped between then and now. His opponent, Charlie Ontiveros, has been knocked out seven times. What more needs to be said? Prediction: Garcia via knockout, round 1.
Silvana Gomez Juarez (10-2) vs. Lupita Godinez (5-1)
This fight was supposed to be between Godinez and Sam Hughes, but Hughes tested positive for the Coronavirus. Hughes' replacement, Silvana Gomez Juarez, has finished eight of her 10 wins, including six due to strikes. Her only losses came against current UFC members Ariane Lipski and Poliana Botelho. Her list of opponents isn't good, but it's not awful like many newcomers these days. For a short notice opponent, she's a solid option. Godinez goes the distance almost every time she fights, so she'll likely win in that fashion here. An upset would be kind of cool though. Prediction: Godinez via decision.
Charles Rosa (14-5) vs. Damon Jackson (18-4-1, 1 NC)
Up next is a battle between grapplers, and it could be one of the better fights of the whole card. Rosa has alternated wins and losses ever since coming to the UFC. Jackson is a submission specialist who has only gone the distance twice in his 24-fight career, with the last one being 11 fights ago back in 2016. However, Rosa has better grappling credentials than he does, so it's highly unlikely that Jackson will submit him. Jackson's biggest weakness is his chin, but Rosa is unlikely to test him there. I'm going with Jackson to keep Rosa's streak of inconsistency intact. Prediction: Jackson via decision.
Alexander Romanov (14-0) vs. Jared Vanderaa (12-5)
Romanov being on the prelims, of a card this lackluster, is pretty disrespectful. He's undefeated, has finished all but one of his wins and is 3-0 in the UFC. Why not highlight him on a bigger card, or at least on the main card? Vanderaa may have finished 10 of his 12 pro wins, but he feels like fodder to keep Romanov's momentum churning. Prediction: Romanov via submission, round 2.
Chris Gutierrez (16-4-2) vs. Felipe Colares (10-2)
In the headlining prelim bout, Chris Gutierrez will look to go to 4-0-1 in his last five, as he takes on Felipe Colares. Gutierrez made his short notice UFC debut in November 2018 against the fearsome Raoni Barcelos, and lost the fight late in the second round. He's been on a roll since then, and could get a ranked opponent in the near future if he keeps winning. He's gone a solid overall fighter who goes the distance quite a bit, but is not boring to watch.
Colares is a former Jungle Fight champion that possesses black belts in both Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Judo. He went 8-0 before joining the UFC and is 2-2 since then. He's gone the distance in each of his last five fights, with his last finish coming back in early 2016. That streak will likely keep going, but I don't think the end result will go in his favor. If Gutierrez fights like he usually does, he should win this fight. Prediction: Gutierrez via decision.
Main Card (7/6c, ESPN+)
Deron Winn (7-2) vs. Phil Hawes (11-2)
In the opening bout of the main card, Phil Hawes will look to extend his winning streak to eight as he faces Deron Winn. Hawes entered the UFC on a four-fight first-round knockout streak, and kept it going in his UFC debut last October. Since then, he's looked a bit gun-shy and lackluster, making fans wonder if he gets antsy when he faces decent competition. Meanwhile, Winn is an undersized wrestler who was exciting early in his career against low-level competition, but hasn't finished a fight since early 2018. He's gone the distance in four of his last five fights and is 2-2 in the UFC. Hawes should beat him, but will probably not finish him. It's an odd choice for a main card opener, which kind of makes it perfect for this card. Prediction: Hawes via decision.
Sabina Mazo (9-2) vs. Mariya Agapova (9-2)
Sabina Mazo is a tepid kickboxer who's gone the distance in five of her last six fights. She's a Flyweight who lost to Alexis Davis in her Bantamweight debut in her last fight, and is now facing a former Bantamweight. That former Bantamweight is Mariya Agapova, who lost to Shana Dobson last August, in what was statistically one of the biggest upsets in MMA history. If her head is on straight, she should win this fight. At this point though, I can't trust her. Somebody has to win this fight, and it will probably be Agapova, but I have zero faith in her. Prediction: Mazo via decision.
(9) Tim Elliott (17-11-1) vs. (11) Matheus Nicolau (16-2-1)
In the featured bout, Tim Elliott takes on Matheus Nicolau. Both are ranked and will be looking to stay in the rankings. Despite dropping five of his first seven fights upon returning to the UFC, Tim Elliott got a chance to stay in the UFC. He's won two straight since then. Nicolau is a Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt who has two wins via Japanese Necktie, the first of which occurred in his UFC debut. He's 4-1 overall in the UFC. I'm going to take a chance and pick Nicolau, but picking against Elliott has burned me before. I'm sticking with my pick, but with caution. Prediction: Nicolau via decision.
Randy Brown (13-4) vs. Jared Gooden (18-6)
For some reason, this is the co-main event of the evening. Randy Brown has won three of his last four fights, and has gone the distance just three times in 17 career fights. It's fine for him to be in the co-main of an ESPN+ card like this one. The issue is Gooden, who is just 1-2 in the UFC and has zero wins against anyone of note. Gooden is well-rounded on paper, but what has he done to deserve this fight or this slot in a UFC card? Brown should win this and likely will. Prediction: Brown via tko, round 3.
(4) Mackenzie Dern (11-1) vs. (6) Marina Rodriguez (14-1-2)
In the main event, highly-ranked Strawweights Mackenzie Dern and Marina Rodriguez will look to cement contender status in what should be an intriguing clash of styles. Dern is Brazilian Jiu Jitsu black belt with tons of gold to her name, and is on a four-fight winning streak. Since returning from maternity leave, she's become a lot more mature as a fighter and hasn't missed weight at all. She's garnered performance bonuses in three of her last four fights, and a win could earn her a title eliminator spot or even a title shot.
Rodriguez is no slouch on the ground, but her biggest asset is her striking. She has six wins via TKO and shocked a lot of people when she finished Amanda Ribas in that manner in January. She's 4-1-2 in the UFC, with her lone loss being a decision against former champion Carla Esparza, and has won two straight since then.
Obviously, this fight favors Dern if it hits the canvas, but favors Rodriguez if it stays standing. Dern's striking has improved, but it's not as good as what Rodriguez offers in that realm. At the same time, as good as Dern is on the ground, I don't know if she can submit Rodriguez. This fight will likely go into deep waters, and there's a good chance it goes the distance. It favors Rodriguez the longer it goes, but Dern's conditioning has been good lately too. I'll reluctantly pick Rodriguez due to her striking and conditioning, but it really is a tossup of a fight. Prediction: Rodriguez via decision.
WordPress.com
No comments:
Post a Comment